In a recent email campaign aimed at “REAL AMERICAN PATRIOTS,” Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee and former President Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, made a bold claim: “Experts are saying that as many as 2.7 million illegals could vote in November.” This alarming statistic, which has been circulating in right-wing circles, has sparked significant debate over its validity. However, a closer examination reveals that this figure is not only outdated but also heavily exaggerated.
The Origin of the Claim
The controversial statistic traces back to a 2014 article titled “Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections?” authored by Jesse Richman and his colleagues. Their research suggested that the number of non-citizen voters could range from as few as 38,000 to nearly 2.8 million. Importantly, the study did not involve direct examination of voter rolls or extensive surveys of immigrants. Instead, it relied on a dataset from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), which included a small number of respondents self-identifying as non-citizens who claimed to have voted.
However, the authors of the CES have repeatedly rejected the conclusions drawn by Richman, arguing that the sample size of non-citizens is too small to be statistically significant. For instance, in 2008, only 339 out of nearly 34,000 participants reported being non-citizens. Brian Schaffner, a CES co-principal investigator, stressed that such a limited sample cannot accurately represent the broader population.
The Misuse of Data
In recent years, Richman has updated his findings, suggesting that about 1% of non-citizens are registered to vote, translating to roughly 117,000 individuals based on estimates of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. He acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding non-citizen voting but noted that both sides of the political spectrum tend to manipulate this uncertainty to fit their narratives.
While some conservatives argue that voter fraud is rampant, scholars like Schaffner maintain that the CES data should not be used to make sweeping claims about non-citizen voting on a national scale.
Resurfacing the 2.7 Million Claim
The claim gained renewed traction in May 2024, when the pro-Trump organization Just Facts published an article asserting that “roughly 1.0 million to 2.7 million [immigrants] will illegally vote” in the upcoming election. This assertion spread quickly through right-wing media and social networks, including being shared by influential figures like Elon Musk.
Lara Trump referenced this exaggerated figure in her emails to supporters, further entrenching it in political discourse. Just Facts founder James Agresti defended the article but acknowledged its substantial uncertainty, describing the claim as a “half truth.” He argued that while his findings suggest a higher number of non-citizens registered to vote, the methodology used to reach such conclusions remains contentious.
The Lack of Evidence
Despite ongoing claims about widespread illegal voting, real-world evidence supporting this narrative is scarce. A comprehensive database compiled by the right-leaning Heritage Foundation documented voting fraud cases over decades but identified only about 100 instances involving non-citizens. Moreover, criminal prosecutions related to illegal voting, including those of non-citizens, remain exceptionally rare.
Investigations into voter rolls, driven by the heightened focus on this issue since Trump took office, have yielded minimal results. For example, in Arizona, a survey of four million voter records identified between 1,934 and 6,480 non-citizens registered to vote. Similarly, Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose examined about eight million registrations, uncovering roughly 600 individuals unable to prove their U.S. citizenship.
The Bigger Picture
While it’s evident that some non-citizens manage to register to vote, the numbers remain negligible compared to the overall voting population. Furthermore, voter turnout among registered individuals is typically around 50-66%, meaning the actual participation rate of undocumented immigrants would be even lower.
Ultimately, while a small number of non-citizens may be registered to vote, claims suggesting that millions are voting illegally significantly inflate the reality. As the election approaches, it’s crucial to critically evaluate such assertions and rely on concrete evidence rather than politically motivated exaggerations.
Conclusion
The narrative surrounding illegal voting, particularly concerning non-citizens, has been a central theme in Trump’s campaign strategy. However, as investigations and data reveal, the claims of widespread voter fraud are largely unfounded. With a lack of substantial evidence, it becomes increasingly important to focus on the integrity of the electoral process and ensure that all voices, legal citizens and otherwise, are heard in the upcoming elections. As voters navigate this complex landscape, a commitment to truth and transparency remains paramount.
