As the prospect of a new global pandemic, often referred to as “Disease X,” looms, experts are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) for assistance. Predictions suggest there is a 25% chance of another outbreak similar to Covid-19 within the next decade, and AI could play a crucial role in mitigating its impact.
Researchers at the University of California, Irvine (UCI) and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) are working on an AI-based early warning system that monitors social media to predict potential pandemics. This project, funded by the US National Science Foundation’s Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention grant, utilizes a database of 2.3 billion Twitter posts to identify emerging health trends. Professor Chen Li from UCI’s Department of Computer Science is leading this effort, focusing on developing a machine-learning model to detect early signs of epidemics and evaluate public health policies.
However, the tool faces challenges, such as reliance on data from X (formerly Twitter), which is inaccessible in some countries. The team is addressing these issues as they work to expand their data coverage globally.
Meanwhile, an AI tool called EVEScape, developed by Harvard Medical School and the University of Oxford, is advancing predictions about new virus variants. This tool, funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), has demonstrated accuracy in forecasting variants of coronavirus, HIV, and influenza. According to Nikki Thadani, a former postdoctoral research fellow involved with EVEScape, the tool offers valuable insights for vaccine manufacturers and therapeutic researchers by predicting future mutations.
Pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca are also leveraging AI to expedite the discovery of new antibodies for vaccines. Jim Wetherall, AstraZeneca’s VP of Data Science and AI R&D, notes that AI can significantly reduce the time needed to identify effective antibody leads, crucial for keeping up with rapidly mutating viruses.
Despite these advancements, experts caution that AI alone cannot prevent or stop pandemics. Dr. In-Kyu Yoon from CEPI and Dr. Philip AbdelMalik from the World Health Organization (WHO) emphasize the importance of human judgment and ethical considerations in AI deployment. AI can enhance preparation and response efforts, but it relies on the quality of input data and cannot replace the need for effective communication, trust, and collaboration.
Overall, while AI has improved our readiness for future pandemics, there is still much work to be done. As Nikki Thadani puts it, “We’re much better off now than we were three years ago,” but continued efforts in both technology and public health practices are necessary to fully prepare for the next global health crisis.
