A  new research by Peking University experts said, China could record upwards of 6.3 lakh Covid-19 cases daily if it mimics the anti-pandemic strategies implemented in the US, lifts travel bans or drops its “zero-tolerance” approach against the virus.

 Published last week by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control’s weekly, four researchers have warned of a “colossal outbreak”, which could put an “unaffordable burden” on the country’s health system if Beijing moved away from its current anti-Covid-19 strategies.

The research paper, titled, “On Coexistence with Covid-19: Estimations and Perspectives”, compared China’s anti-epidemic measures with that of five other countries: the US, UK, Israel, Spain and France.

The  researchers from Peking University with expertise in mathematics, statistics and public health, said, “More efficient vaccinations or more specific treatment, preferably a combination of both, are needed before entry-exit quarantine measures and other Covid-19 response strategies in China can be safely lifted,” .

Despite local and even interprovincial outbreaks in recent months, China has been able to control the spread of coronavirus within the country since it first emerged from the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.

Until Saturday, the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases on the mainland was 98,631 while the death toll stood at 4,636.

The researchers estimated that China would have logged 454,198 and 275,793 daily Covid-19 cases if it had put in place strategies implemented by France and the UK.

The study used data for August from the five countries to conclude that China could have logged between 2.6 lakh to 6.3 lakh cases every day if similar strategies to fight the pandemic had been in place, with the worst-case scenario of 637,155 daily infections becoming a reality if the model adopted by the US, a country with much less population and population density, was relied on.

The research said China was not ready to open up just yet since it was difficult for the country to achieve at least three of the four tenets needed for an effective transition from Covid elimination strategies to opening up.


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