Japan’s new prime minister, Fumio Kishida, faces his first major test on Sunday as Japan holds a general election that could see his ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority in the powerful lower house.
Here are five numbers to watch as Kishida’s LDP and junior partner Komeito seek a fresh mandate. Kishida has said he wants to maintain a majority or 233 seats of the 465-member lower chamber for the ruling coalition, a low-ball target given that the LDP alone held 276 seats before the election was called this month.
Some media polls suggest the ruling coalition could reach the so-called absolute stable majority of 261 seats – enough for it to take all the parliamentary committee chairs and maintain a majority on each committee, making it easy to push through bills.
Some polls show the LDP could lose its majority, a result that would raise questions about Kishida’s ability to hang in for the long term and weaken him ahead of next year’s upper house election.
The JIP, which held 11 lower house seats before the election was called, could win up to 36 seats, an outcome that could make it the third-biggest party in the chamber, the Asahi daily said, bolstering its influence in national politics.
Although the JIP is in opposition, like Kishida’s LDP it is in favour of revising the U.S.-drafted, post-war constitution and letting the defence budget break away from a narrow range around 1% of GDP to increase Japan’s security posture.
Women accounted for 10% of lower house lawmakers before the chamber was dissolved this month, far behind France’s 40% and 27% in the United States.Japan comes 120th in the World Economic Forum’s global gender gap report, due mainly to limited presence of women in political leadership.
33 women are on the LDP ticket, accounting for 10% of its candidates in the election, while the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has fielded 44 female candidates or 18% of its candidates.
The youth turnout was particularly low in 2017, with only three out of every 10 people in the 20-24 age bracket casting votes. As a result, lawmakers tend to pay more heed to the needs of the elderly, who are far more likely to vote in ageing Japan.
