Joe Biden’s performance in the recent US presidential debate has raised concerns among Democrats. However, replacing a sitting president as the party’s nominee is unprecedented and extremely difficult under current rules. Here’s an overview of how such a scenario might unfold:
Unprecedented and Challenging
- Historical Context: No national US party has ever forced an election candidate to step down in the modern era. The issue arose for both parties in 2016, but no action was taken.
- State Primaries: Biden won nearly all the delegates during the state primaries, making it challenging to overturn these results.
- Democratic National Convention: The delegates are set to confirm his nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August.
Possible Scenarios
- Delegates’ Decision: Democrat rules state that delegates can “in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” This clause could be a potential way to replace Biden if concerns about his performance and mental acuity reach a critical level.
- Biden’s Withdrawal: The most plausible scenario for a new candidate would be if Biden voluntarily steps down. Despite dismissing this option previously, if he changes his mind, it would cause significant turmoil within the party.
Procedures if Biden Withdraws
- Before the Convention: If Biden withdraws before the convention, the delegates he secured during the primaries would be free to choose a new candidate. This could lead to aggressive campaigning among potential candidates to win their support.
- After the Convention: If Biden withdraws after the convention, the Democratic Party chair could call a special meeting of around 500 members to select a new nominee via a simple majority vote. This process would likely be chaotic with significant behind-the-scenes maneuvering.
Potential Candidates
- Kamala Harris: As Vice President, Harris would not automatically become the Democratic nominee if Biden resigns from the race. She would need to campaign for the delegates’ support like any other candidate.
- Other Contenders: California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are frequently mentioned as potential future nominees. However, both have expressed support for Biden and have not shown interest in replacing him this year. Other potential candidates include Minnesota’s Dean Phillips and Jason Palmer, though they would face significant challenges in garnering enough support.
Practical Concerns
- Voting Logistics: If Biden withdraws close to the election, logistical issues such as reprinting voting papers could arise, raising constitutional and legal questions.
While the Democrats could theoretically replace Joe Biden as their nominee, the process would be fraught with difficulties and unprecedented challenges. The most straightforward path would be Biden’s voluntary withdrawal, leading to a scramble for delegates’ support among potential new candidates.
