he Pittsburgh Pirates (56-58) embark on a crucial 6-game road trip starting Friday as they face the Los Angeles Dodgers (66-49) in the opening game of a 3-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET, with MLB Network providing the broadcast. Here’s an in-depth look at the game, including odds, projections, and betting insights from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Season Series Overview
The Pirates currently lead the season series 2-1, having won two of the first three encounters against the Dodgers. Despite this, the Pirates are struggling with recent form, having lost four straight games and six of their last seven. Their most recent defeat came at the hands of the San Diego Padres, who completed a 3-game sweep with a 7-6 victory on Thursday.
Conversely, the Dodgers have also hit a rough patch, dropping their last two games. They lost their recent series to the Philadelphia Phillies and were defeated 9-4 in the series finale on Wednesday. Thursday’s off-day could serve as a reset for the Dodgers as they look to get back on track.
Projected Pitching Matchup
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller
- Record: 10-5
- ERA: 3.30
- WHIP: 1.19
- K/9: 8.0
- BB/9: 2.4
Keller will make his 23rd start of the season. He has been in strong form recently, holding a 2.17 ERA over his last five starts, all of which resulted in Pirates victories. In his last outing, Keller delivered a no-decision after pitching 4 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts in a 4-2 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, Keller has struggled historically against the Dodgers, with a 2-2 record and a 5.79 ERA in four career starts against them.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Jack Flaherty
- Record: 8-5
- ERA: 2.80
- WHIP: 0.96
- K/9: 11.2
- BB/9: 1.6
Flaherty will make his 20th start and second with the Dodgers since being acquired. His recent form has been exceptional, boasting a 1.14 ERA over his last four starts, including a pair of scoreless outings. In his most recent start, Flaherty earned a win with 6 scoreless innings and 7 strikeouts in a 10-0 road victory over the Oakland A’s. Historically, Flaherty has been dominant against the Pirates, with a 9-1 record and a 2.52 ERA in 16 career appearances (15 starts) against them.
Betting Odds and Analysis
Moneyline:
- Pirates +160 (Bet $100 to win $160)
- Dodgers -190 (Bet $190 to win $100)
Run Line:
- Pirates +1.5 (-135)
- Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under:
- 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Picks and Predictions
Prediction: Dodgers 4, Pirates 3
The Dodgers are favored, given their strong home record and recent pitching prowess. They have the second-most home wins in Major League Baseball with 35 and are 7-3 in their last 10 home games. Additionally, the Dodgers have not lost three consecutive home games since April. Despite this, the high odds on the moneyline at -190 make it a risky bet.
Moneyline: Given the high odds and the Pirates’ competitive nature, especially with Keller’s strong recent performance, it might be safer to avoid betting on the Dodgers’ moneyline at -190.
Run Line/Against the Spread: The Pirates have lost five of their last six games by just one run and have a solid 35-21 record against the spread (ATS) on the road. The Dodgers are 26-30 ATS at home this season. Betting on the Pirates +1.5 (-135) offers a promising value considering their recent close games and strong performance against the spread.
Over/Under: Both Keller and Flaherty are in excellent form, suggesting a low-scoring game. Keller has not allowed more than two runs in his last five starts, and Flaherty has been even more dominant with only three runs allowed in his last four starts. Given the impressive pitching matchups, betting on the Under 8 (-115) is a prudent choice.
Summary:
The Pittsburgh Pirates (56-58) will face the Los Angeles Dodgers (66-49) on Friday at Dodger Stadium in the first game of a 3-game series. The Pirates, who have struggled recently with four straight losses, are up against a Dodgers team that has lost its last two games. The starting pitchers are Mitch Keller for the Pirates, who has been strong recently, and Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers, who has been dominant with a 1.14 ERA over his last four starts. The Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -190, but considering recent close games, betting on the Pirates +1.5 might be a good value. With both pitchers performing well, betting on the Under 8 is also recommended.
